Decision traps: ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them
Two experts in business management show how to avoid the ten common pitfalls that ensanre decision makers. The very latest research in the fields of business and psychology has been distilled into practical training methods that will save readers from ever making a bad decision again.
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An Excellent DecisionMaking
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alternative Amos Tversky analysis analyze anchor answer approach asked Baruch Fischhoff Behavior better bias biases Bootstrapping Models boss bullet causes chance Chapter choose cognitive complex consider consumers cost create Daniel Kahneman decide decision audit decision frame decision process decision rule Decision Trap Number decision-making disconfirming discussed dollars estimates evaluate evidence example experience factors fail fault tree forecast Genentech group decision Groupthink heuristic hindsight hindsight bias hiring Howard Raiffa illusion of control important improve intelligence intelligence-gathering intuition Irving Janis issue Japanese judgments leader learning levels of confidence managers metadecision missing feedback Newton Baker organizations outcomes overconfidence Paul Slovic percent person predict probably problem professionals psychologists questions random reasons recency effect reframing Review Richard Thaler rules of thumb scenarios strategy subjective linear model success thinking frames tonsillectomy understand Worksheet