The Art of Thinking Clearly

Front Cover
Harper Collins, May 6, 2014 - Psychology - 384 pages

"A serious examination of the faulty reasoning that leads to repeated mistakes by individuals, businesses, and nations…In this fascinating book, Dobelli does not offer a recipe for happiness but a well-considered treatise on avoiding ‘self-induced unhappiness.’" — Booklist (starred review)

The Art of Thinking Clearly by world-class thinker and entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli is an eye-opening look at human psychology and faulty reasoning — an essential book for anyone who wants to improve their decision-making, avoid "cognitive errors," and make better choices in all aspects of their lives.

Have you ever: Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn’t worth it? Or continued doing something you knew was bad for you? These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. But by understanding these mental models and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better decisions.

Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making—work, at home, every day. It reveals, in 99 short chapters, the most common errors of judgment, and how to avoid them.

Learn to spot the mental traps that derail your thinking every day:

  • Survivorship Bias: Why we systematically overestimate our chances of success and how visiting the "graveyards" of failed projects can clear our minds.
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy: The mental trap that makes us continue with a project or relationship, even when it’s a lost cause, just because we’ve invested so much.
  • Confirmation Bias: Uncover the mother of all misconceptions and learn why we actively filter new information to fit our existing beliefs.
  • The Anchoring Effect: Discover how irrelevant numbers, from a wheel of fortune to your Social Security digits, can dramatically influence your decisions.
  • Critical Thinking Tools: Go beyond simply knowing what these biases are and learn practical ways to avoid them and transform your choices at work and at home.
 

Contents

Swimmers Body Illusion
2
Clustering Illusion
3
Social Proof
4
Sunk Cost Fallacy
5
Reciprocity
5
Confirmation Bias Part
6
Confirmation Bias Part
8
Authority Bias
8
The Problem with Averages
55
Motivation Crowding
55
Twaddle Tendency
56
Will Rogers Phenomenon
58
Information Bias
58
Effort Justification
60
The Law of Small Numbers
60
Expectations
62

Contrast Effect
10
Availability Bias
10
The ItllGetWorse BeforeItGetsBetter Fallacy
12
Story Bias
13
Hindsight Bias
14
Overconfidence Effect
15
Chauffeur Knowledge
16
Illusion of Control
17
Incentive SuperResponse Tendency
18
Regression to Mean
19
Outcome Bias
20
Paradox of Choice
20
Liking Bias
22
Endowment Effect
23
Coincidence
24
Groupthink
24
Neglect of Probability
26
Scarcity Error
26
BaseRate Neglect
28
Gamblers Fallacy
29
The Anchor
30
Induction
31
Loss Aversion
32
Social Loafing
33
Exponential Growth
34
Winners Curse
35
Fundamental Attribution Error
36
False Causality
37
Halo Effect
38
Alternative Paths
39
Forecast Illusion
40
Conjunction Fallacy
41
Framing
42
Action Bias
43
Omission Bias
44
SelfServing Bias
45
Hedonic Treadmill
46
SelfSelection Bias
48
Association Bias
48
Beginners Luck
48
Cognitive Dissonance
49
Hyperbolic Discounting
51
Because Justification
52
Decision Fatigue
53
Contagion Bias
53
Simple Logic
63
Forer Effect
63
Volunteers Folly
65
Affect Heuristic
66
Introspection Illusion
67
Inability to Close Doors
68
Neomania
69
Sleeper Effect
69
Alternative Blindness
71
Social Comparison Bias
72
Primacy and Recency Effects
72
NotInventedHere Syndrome
74
The Black Swan
75
Domain Dependence
75
FalseConsensus Effect
76
Falsification of History
78
InGroup OutGroup Bias
79
Ambiguity Aversion
80
Default Effect
81
Fear of Regret
82
Salience Effect
82
HouseMoney Effect
84
Procrastination
85
Envy
85
Personification
87
Illusion of Attention
88
Strategic Misrepresentation
89
Overthinking
90
Planning Fallacy
92
Déformation Professionnelle
94
Zeigarnik Effect
94
Illusion of Skill
94
FeaturePositive Effect
95
Cherry Picking
95
Fallacy of the Single Cause
97
IntentiontoTreat Error
98
News Illusion
99
Epilogue
Acknowledgments
A Note on Sources
About the Author
Credits
Copyright About the Publisher
Copyright

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About the author (2014)

Rolf Dobelli is a bestselling writer and entrepreneur. He is the founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of some of the world's most famed and distinguished thinkers, scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs, and a cofounder of getAbstract, the world's largest publisher of compressed knowledge. He lives in Lucerne, Switzerland.