The Art of Thinking Clearly"A serious examination of the faulty reasoning that leads to repeated mistakes by individuals, businesses, and nations…In this fascinating book, Dobelli does not offer a recipe for happiness but a well-considered treatise on avoiding ‘self-induced unhappiness.’" — Booklist (starred review) The Art of Thinking Clearly by world-class thinker and entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli is an eye-opening look at human psychology and faulty reasoning — an essential book for anyone who wants to improve their decision-making, avoid "cognitive errors," and make better choices in all aspects of their lives. Have you ever: Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn’t worth it? Or continued doing something you knew was bad for you? These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. But by understanding these mental models and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better decisions. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making—work, at home, every day. It reveals, in 99 short chapters, the most common errors of judgment, and how to avoid them. Learn to spot the mental traps that derail your thinking every day:
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Contents
| 2 | |
| 3 | |
Social Proof | 4 |
Sunk Cost Fallacy | 5 |
Reciprocity | 5 |
Confirmation Bias Part | 6 |
Confirmation Bias Part | 8 |
Authority Bias | 8 |
The Problem with Averages | 55 |
Motivation Crowding | 55 |
Twaddle Tendency | 56 |
Will Rogers Phenomenon | 58 |
Information Bias | 58 |
Effort Justification | 60 |
The Law of Small Numbers | 60 |
Expectations | 62 |
Contrast Effect | 10 |
Availability Bias | 10 |
The ItllGetWorse BeforeItGetsBetter Fallacy | 12 |
Story Bias | 13 |
Hindsight Bias | 14 |
Overconfidence Effect | 15 |
Chauffeur Knowledge | 16 |
Illusion of Control | 17 |
Incentive SuperResponse Tendency | 18 |
Regression to Mean | 19 |
Outcome Bias | 20 |
Paradox of Choice | 20 |
Liking Bias | 22 |
Endowment Effect | 23 |
Coincidence | 24 |
Groupthink | 24 |
Neglect of Probability | 26 |
Scarcity Error | 26 |
BaseRate Neglect | 28 |
Gamblers Fallacy | 29 |
The Anchor | 30 |
Induction | 31 |
Loss Aversion | 32 |
Social Loafing | 33 |
Exponential Growth | 34 |
Winners Curse | 35 |
Fundamental Attribution Error | 36 |
False Causality | 37 |
Halo Effect | 38 |
Alternative Paths | 39 |
Forecast Illusion | 40 |
Conjunction Fallacy | 41 |
Framing | 42 |
Action Bias | 43 |
Omission Bias | 44 |
SelfServing Bias | 45 |
Hedonic Treadmill | 46 |
SelfSelection Bias | 48 |
Association Bias | 48 |
Beginners Luck | 48 |
Cognitive Dissonance | 49 |
Hyperbolic Discounting | 51 |
Because Justification | 52 |
Decision Fatigue | 53 |
Contagion Bias | 53 |
Simple Logic | 63 |
Forer Effect | 63 |
Volunteers Folly | 65 |
Affect Heuristic | 66 |
Introspection Illusion | 67 |
Inability to Close Doors | 68 |
Neomania | 69 |
Sleeper Effect | 69 |
Alternative Blindness | 71 |
Social Comparison Bias | 72 |
Primacy and Recency Effects | 72 |
NotInventedHere Syndrome | 74 |
The Black Swan | 75 |
Domain Dependence | 75 |
FalseConsensus Effect | 76 |
Falsification of History | 78 |
InGroup OutGroup Bias | 79 |
Ambiguity Aversion | 80 |
Default Effect | 81 |
Fear of Regret | 82 |
Salience Effect | 82 |
HouseMoney Effect | 84 |
Procrastination | 85 |
Envy | 85 |
Personification | 87 |
Illusion of Attention | 88 |
Strategic Misrepresentation | 89 |
Overthinking | 90 |
Planning Fallacy | 92 |
Déformation Professionnelle | 94 |
Zeigarnik Effect | 94 |
Illusion of Skill | 94 |
FeaturePositive Effect | 95 |
Cherry Picking | 95 |
Fallacy of the Single Cause | 97 |
IntentiontoTreat Error | 98 |
News Illusion | 99 |
Epilogue | |
Acknowledgments | |
A Note on Sources | |
About the Author | |
Credits | |


