The Art of Thinking Clearly

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Harper Collins, May 6, 2014 - Psychology - 384 pages

A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life

Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger.

The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t.

Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

 

Contents

Because Justification 53 Decide BetterDecide Less Decision Fatigue 54 Would You Wear Hitlers Sweater? Contagion Bias
The Problemwith Averages 56 How Bonuses DestroyMotivation Motivation Crowding 57 If You Have Nothing toSay Say Nothing Twaddle Tenden...
Information Bias 60 Hurts So Good Effort Justification 61 Why SmallThings Loom Large The Law of Small Numbers
Expectations 63 Speed Traps Ahead SimpleLogic 64 How to Expose a Charlatan Forer Effect 65 Volunteer Work Isfor the Birds Volunteers Folly 66...
Sleeper Effect
Alternative Blindness
Social Comparison Bias
Primacyand Recency Effects

Confirmation BiasPart2 9 Dont Bowto Authority Authority Bias 10 Leave Your Supermodel Friends at Home Contrast Effect 11 Why We Prefer aWr...
Chauffeur Knowledge 17 You Control Less Than YouThink Illusionof Control 18 Never PayYour Lawyer bytheHour Incentive SuperResponse Ten...
Outcome Bias
Paradox of Choice
Liking Bias 23 Dont Clingto Things Endowment Effect 24 The Inevitability of Unlikely EventsCoincidence 25 The CalamityofConformity Groupthi...
Gamblers Fallacy
The Anchor
Induction
Loss Aversion 33 Why Teams Are LazySocial Loafing 34 Stumped by a Sheet of Paper Exponential Growth 35 Curb Your Enthusiasm Winners Cur...
Fundamental Attribution Error
False Causality 38 Why AttractivePeople Climb the CareerLadder MoreQuickly Halo Effect
Alternative Paths
Forecast Illusion 41 The Deception of Specific Cases Conjunction Fallacy
Framing 43 Why Watching and Waiting Is Torture Action Bias
Omission Bias 45 Dont BlameMeSelfServing Bias 46 Be Careful What YouWish ForHedonic Treadmill 47 Do Not Marvel atYour Existence SelfSele...
NotInventedHere Syndrome 75 How to Profit from the Implausible The Black Swan
Domain Dependence
FalseConsensusEffect 78 You WereRight All Along FalsificationofHistory 79 Why You Identify with Your Football TeamInGroup OutGroup Bias 8...
DefaultEffect 82 Why Last Chances MakeUsPanicFearof Regret 83 How EyeCatching Details Render UsBlind SalienceEffect 84 Why Money Is Not ...
Envy 87 Why YouPrefer Novels toStatistics Personification 88 You Have No Idea What YouAre Overlooking Illusion of Attention 89 Hot Air Strate...
Overthinking 91 Why YouTake OnToo Much Planning Fallacy 92 Those Wielding Hammers See OnlyNails Déformation Professionnelle 93 Mission...
Illusion of Skill
FeaturePositive Effect 96 Drawing the BullsEye around theArrow Cherry Picking 97 The Stone Age Hunt for Scapegoats Fallacyofthe Single Cause
IntentiontoTreat Error
News Illusion Epilogue
Acknowledgments
A Note on Sources
About the Author Credits Copyright About the Publisher
Copyright

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Rolf Dobelli is a bestselling writer and entrepreneur. He is the founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of some of the world's most famed and distinguished thinkers, scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs, and a cofounder of getAbstract, the world's largest publisher of compressed knowledge. He lives in Lucerne, Switzerland.

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