Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer

accuracy accurate actual additional advantages alternative amalgamated analysis answer approach areas Armstrong asked assess assumed average behavior better bootstrapping Business called causal variables Chapter combined compared comparisons complex considered costs current status decision dependent described developed discussion econometric econometric model Economic effects error estimates evaluation evidence examined example Exhibit expected experiment extrapolation factors forecasts given important improved increase indicated interest involved Journal judges judgmental less long-range forecasting Management MAPE mean measure methods objective observations obtained organization period planning possible predictions presented priori problem procedure question reasonable references regression relationships represent respondents Review rule sample Science segmentation selection significant similar simple situation smoothing Social sources Statistical step strategy subjective suggests survey techniques tion trend types uncertainty United validity weights