Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer

accurate amalgamated forecast approach Armstrong asked assess average backcasts behavior bias bootstrapping model Box-Jenkins causal methods causal variables Chapter Clever Hans coefficient complex concurrent validity considered costs decision Delphi dependent segmentation dependent variable described developed discussion Ec Eco eclectic research econometric methods econometric model econometricians Economic empirical estimating current status evaluation examined example Exhibit expected experiment exponential smoothing feedback forecast horizon forecast validity forecasting change forecasting methods forecasting model historical data hypotheses important improved inputs interview Journal judges judgmental forecasting judgmental methods large changes linear long-range forecasting Management MAPE Markov chains measurement error multicollinearity multiple MULTIPLE COMPARISONS objective data objective methods obtained predictions priori analysis problem procedure Psychology reasonable regression analysis relationships Review role playing Science seasonal factors selection short-range forecasting simple simulation situation statistically significant strategy subjective survey techniques tion Tom Swift trend uncertainty Wizard of Id