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MR. J. C. STEVENS will Sell by Auction To the United States, the Continent, &c. :

at his Great Rooms, 38 King Street, Covent Garden, on TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, APRIL 22 and 21, at half-past 12 precisely each day, without reserve, the above-named Valuable and Well-known Collection, made with great care, and in which the Specimens are all Authentic, and mostly Labelled, and in the finest condition, and is

Yearly. Half-yearly

Quarterly

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Yearly. Half-yearly

Quarterly

remarkably rich in VARIETIES and LOCAL FORMS, and comprises To India, China, and Japan :—

Fine Series of Chrysophanus dispar, Noctua subrosea, and many other
Rare and Extinct Species, Valuable Hermaphrodites, Scoparia, and
Pterophori. The excellent Cab.nets in which the Collection is contained
will be included in the Sale.

On View the Day prior, 10 to 5, and Mornings of Sale, and Catalogues

had.

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A Large Collection of Beautiful Mineral Specimens, including a VERY FINE GROUP OF SENARMONTITE CRYSTALS, VERY BRILLIANT MANGANITES, WULFENITES. VANADÍMITES, HARMATOME, from Oberstein and Scotland; NATROLITES, Auvergne ; CHILDRENITES, ARAGONITES, and MELANOPHLOGITE. FOSSILS, ROCKS, ROCK SECTIONS, HAMMERS, CHISELS, and BLOWPIPE APPARATUS. Precious Stones for Collectors and Mounting. COLLECTIONS FOR STUDENTS AND PROSPECTORS. Lessons given. Catalogues Free. MINERALOGY AND GEOLOGY.

SPECIAL AND TYPICAL COLLECTIONS FOR STUDENTS, LECTURERS, AND MUSEUMS.

EVERY REQUISITE FOR PRACTICAL WORK, CABINETS. CASES, APPARATUS OF ALL KINDS.

The Largest Stock in England of Rocks, Rock-Sections, Minerals, Fossils.

New Catalogues and Lists now ready, Free, of

JAMES R. GREGORY,

88 CHARLOTTE STREET, FITZROY SQUARE, LONDON.

F. H. BUTLER, M.A. Oxon., Assoc.R.S.Mines,

NATURAL HISTORY AGENCY,

158 BROMPTON ROAD, LONDON, Dealer in Rocks, Minerals, Fossils, and other Objects of Scientific Interest,

Begs to announce that he has REMOVED his extensive Collections to more Commodious Premises at the above Address, and has thus secured greatly increased facilities for the execution of Orders.

A Large Assortment of Hammers of New Pattern, for all classes of Rock-collectors, has just been added to Stock, also a fresh Series of Microsections illustrative of Teall's "British Petrography."

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CHARGES FOR ADVERTISEMENTS.
Three Lines in Column 2s. 6d. 9d. per Line after.

One Eighth Page, or Quarter Column
Quarter Page, or Half a Column

Half a Page, or a Column

Whole Page

£ s. d.

0 18 6

I 15

Money Orders payable to MACMILLAN & CO.
OFFICE: 29 BEDFORD STREET, STRAND, W.C.

J. T. CROCKETT,

Maker of every description of Entomological Cabinets and Apparatus ; Store- and Book-boxes, fitted with Camphor-cells; Setting Boards, Oval or Flat, &c. Cabinets of every description kept in stock. SPECIAL INSECT CABINETS, with Drawers fitted with Glass Tops and Bottoms to show upper and under side without removing insect. Store-boxes specially made for Continental Setting, highly recommended for Beetles. All best work. Lowest possible terms for cash. Prices on Application. Estimates supplied. Trade supplied. Established since 1847.

Show Rooms-7A Prince's Street, Cavendish Square, W. (7 doors from Oxford Circus). Factories-34 Ridinghouse Street, and Ogle Street, W.

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Mathematical Instrument Manufacturer to H.M. Government, Council of India, Science and Art Department, Admiralty, &c. Mathematical, Drawing, and Surveying Instruments of every Description,

Of the Highest Quality and Finish, at the most Moderate Prices. Illustrated Price List Post Free.

W. F. S. obtained the only Medal in the Great Exhibition of 1862 for Excellence of Construction of Mathematical Instruments, and the only GOLD MEDAL in the International Inventions Exhibition 1885 for Mathematical Work. Silver Medal, Architects' Exhibition, 1886. Address:-GREAT TURNStile, holbORN, LONDON, W.C.

Paris Exhibition,

1889:

FRY'S

Pure Concentrated

COCOA

WEAK AND

DEFECTIVE

Gold Meda awarded to

J. S. Fry & Sons.

SIGHT.

SPECTACLES scientifically adapted to remedy impaired vision by Mr. ACKLAND, Surgeon, daily, at HORNE AND THORNTHWAITE'S, Opticians to the Queen, 416 Strand, London. The weak-sighted should read Ackland's "Hints on Spectacles," 6d., post free.

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Printed by RICHARD CLAY AND SONS, LIMITED, at 7 and 8 Bread Street Hill, Queen Victoria Street, in the City of London, and Published by MACMILLAN AND Co., at the Office, 29 and 30 Bedford Street, Covent Garden.-THURSDAY, April 10, 1890

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THE NEW PATENT WATKIN ANEROID BAROMETER.

Amongst several unsolicited Testimonials

the two following have been received by the

THE OBSERVATORY, MELBOURNE,
October 10, 1888.

DEAR SIR,-The Watkin Aneroid
only reached me three weeks ago,
I am very much pleased
with it, and have given it a
pretty severe trial with very
satisfactory results.

(Signed) R. J. ELLERY.

EDINBURGH, May 31,'89. DEAR SIR,-I have just returned from a six weeks' stay at the Ben Nevis Observatory, and while there had an opportunity of testing the admirable qualities of your new "Watkin" Aneroid. The result has been most satisfactory, the extreme error noted being only about of an inch. During my stay at the Observatory the Aneroid was frequently tested by taking it down 2000 feet and then comparing it with the standard on my return.

The results obtained speak volumes for the high-class workmanship and great
accuracy you have attained in the manufacture of this instrument.
(Signed) R. C. MOSSMAN, F. R. M.S., Observer. Scott. Met. Soc.

RIPPON

ASTRONOMICAL TELESCOPE

With 3-inch Achromatic Object-Glass of excellent quality, with brass body, one Terrestrial and two Celestial Eye-pieces, in Case complete. Guaranteed to be capable of dividing Double Stars and showing Saturn's Ring and Jupiter's Belts.

Price £6 10s. Od.

Catalogue of Astronomical Telescopes sent Free.

J. J. HICKS, 8, 9, & 10 HATTON GARDEN, LONDON. JOHN BROWNING, 63 STRAND, LONDON, W.C. "The 'STAR' MICROSCOPE is a modern marvel at its low price. The lenses alone are worth the money."-British Medical Journal.

BECK'S

£2 2s. to £5 5s.

NEW

MODEL

throughout in brass, neatly japanned, and is not only first-rate in optical qualities,

but is now a handsome, well-finished Instrument.

R. & J. BECK, 68 Cornhill, London, E.C.

NEGRETTI & ZAMBRA'S

SPECTACLES.

WITH FINEST BRAZILIAN PEBBLES,
OR THE PUREST GLASS.
Carefully adapted to any sight, a Register of which is kept for
future reference.

00

NEGRETTI AND ZAMBRA make a Speciality of Spectacles for
Lawn Tennis, Billiards, Fishing, Riding, and Shooting.

NEGRETTI & ZAMBRA,

SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENT MAKERS TO THE QUEEN,

38 HOLBORN VIADUCT, E.C.
Branches: 45 CORNHILL; 122 REGENT STREET.
Photographic Studio-CRYSTAL PALACE, Sydenham.
Telephone No. 6583. Telegraphic Address: "Negretti, London."

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Profs. IIUMPHRY, TURNER, AND MCKENDRICK. WILLIAMS & NORGATE, 14 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden, London; and 20 South Frederick Street, Edinburgh.

Second Edition, Re-written and Greatly Enlarged. With 37 Illustrations. 8vo, 24s.

SELECT METHODS IN CHEMICAL ANALYSIS
CHIEFLY INORGANIC.

By WILLIAM CROOKES, F.R.S., &c.
London LONGMANS, GREEN, & CO.

The ENTOMOLOGIST'S

RECORD and JOURNAL of VARIATION. An Illustrated Journal of General Entomology. Edited by J. W. 1UTT, F.E.S. Issued in Monthly Parts, Price 6d., commencing APRIL 15. This Magazine will be devoted specially to the Requirements of BRITISH ENTOMOLOGISTS. In the First Number is commenced a Series of Papers by Dr. T. A. CHAPMAN upon the Genus " Acronycta," which will be illustrated by LITHO and CHROMO-LITHO PLATES. Subscriptions, 6s. per Annum, including Postage and all Double Numbers, may be sent to Mr. A. J. HODGES, 2 Highbury Place, London, N. Published by WM. H. ALLEN & CO., 13 Waterloo Place, S.W.

EQUATORIAL AFRICA AND ASHANGO LAND. Now Ready, with Map and go Illustrations, Post 8vo, 7s. 6d. ADVENTURES in the GREAT FOREST of EQUATORIAL AFRICA, and the COUNTRY of the DWARFS. By PAUL DU CHAILLU, Author of the "Viking Age," "Land of the Midnight Sun," &c. An Abridged and Popular Edition.

JOHN MURRAY, Albemarle Street.

Just Published, Crown 8vo, 7s. 6d., Cloth. THE ART OF PAPER-MAKING: a Practical Hand-book of the Manufacture of Paper from Rags, Esparto, Straw, and other Fibrous Materials, including the Manufacture of Pulp from Wood Fibre. With a Description of the Machinery and Appliances used, and of Processes for Recovering Soda from Waste Liquors. By ALEX. WATT, Author of "Soap-making." &c.

CROSBY LOCKWOOD & SON, 7 Stationers' Hall Court, London, E.C.

Just Published, New Edition, Corrected to March 1890, and Reduced in Price.

STANFORD'S

LIBRARY MAP
MAP OF AFRICA.

Engraved in the Finest Style on Copper Plates. Scale, 94 miles to 1 inch. Size, 65 inches by 58.

PRICES:

4 Sheets, Coloured, 355. ; per Post, packed on Roller, 351. & Mounted on Rollers, Varnished, 45s.

Mounted in Morocco Case, 6os. ; per Post, 60s. 8d.
Mounted on Spring Roller, £5.

The vast progress that has been made in the last few years 10 opening up the interior of this great continent has so altered its aspect as to make this New Edition largely a New Map.

The development of large territories in the east and south by means of Chartered Companies under British influence is clearly shown; and, further south, the States of South Africa, now making sure and steady progress in the work of exploration and topographical survey, are carefully delineated.

The route of Stanley in his last great journey across Tropical Africa, the results of Junker's, Wissmann's, Last's, Capello and Ivens's, and numerous other travellers' explorations in this vast region, together with those of Selous and others in the countries south of the Zambesi, have all been duly incorporated. The political boundaries have been carefully revised up to date, the agreement just arrived at between Great Britain and France in West Africa, and the territory claimed by Lobengula and recently placed under British influence, being properly coloured.

London: EDWARD STANFORD,

26 and 27 Cockspur Street, Charing Cross, S. W.
A. & C. BLACK'S LIST.

SCIENCE IN PLAIN LANGUAGE.
This Week, in Crown 8vo, Cloth, Price 15. 6d.
EVOLUTION, ANTIQUITY OF MAN,
BACTERIA, &c.

A Series of Papers giving the General Results of Scientific Investigations in plain every-day language, without too much detail.

By WILLIAM DURHAM, F.R.S.E.

This Week, in Fcap. 8vo, Cloth, pp. 436, Price 4s. 6d.

A NEW AND ENLARGED EDITION, THE FIFTH, OF JUKES'S SCHOOL MANUAL OF GEOLOGY.

Edited, and partly Rewritten, by

A. J. JUKES-BROWNE, B.A., F.G.S.,

Of the Geological Survey of England and Wales.
Now Ready, in 2 Vols., Crown 8vo, Price 235.

ALGEBRA.

AN ELEMENTARY TEXT-BOOK FOR HIGHER
SCHOOLS AND COLLEGES.

Part I., pp. 559, Price 10s. 6d. Part II., pp. 588, Price 12s. 6d.
By Prof. GEORGE CHRYSTAL, M.A.
Now Ready, in Crown 8vo, pp. 304, Price 65.
LIGHT.

SECOND EDITION.

By Prof. P. G. TAIT, M.A.

Edinburgh: ADAM & CHARLES BLACK.

THURSDAY, APRIL 17, 1890.

THE GROWTH OF CAPITAL.

The Growth of Capital. By Robert Giffen. (London: G. Bell and Sons, 1889.)

THE

HE popular conception of what statistics are is happily caricatured by a contemporary novelist, who describes an adept in that science stationing himself early in the morning at the entrance to a bridge, and, after scrutinizing the passengers for several hours, triumphantly reporting that exactly 2371 widows have crossed during the day. This arithmetic of the street is not the type of Mr. Giffen's calculations. His purpose is more philosophical, his method more elaborate.

The object which he seeks to measure is nothing less than the whole property, the accumulated exchangeable wealth, of the United Kindom. In this problem, to apprehend even the question requires an effort of intelligence. "Imagination shrinks from the task of framing a catalogue or inventory of a nation's property, as a valuator would make it." Reason points out that the grand total is not so much the value of the whole, which in its entirety cannot be considered saleable, as the sum of the values of all the parts, any one of which may be sold by its proprietor. The attribute of accumulation, as well as that of exchange, requires careful definition. Mr. Giffen, differing from some of his predecessors and contemporaries, does not regard the labourer himself as a species of capital. He does not, with Petty, attempt to determine the "value of the people," nor, with De Foville, to effect "the evaluation of human capital." However, some items which are of an incorporeal nature seem to enter into his account. Presumably, that part of the national capital which he reckons by capitalizing the income of public companies-multiplying it by a certain number of years' purchase-represents the value, not only of land and plant, but also of an immaterial something, which, in a broad sense, may be described as "custom or "good will." Mr. Giffen doubts whether public debt should be admitted as an item of capital. He is certain that tenant-right should be excluded.

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The uses of such a valuation are manifold. Mr. Giffen devotes a chapter to their enumeration. In the first place, it is desirable to compare our resources with our liabilities. It is satisfactory to find that the national debt compared with the national fortune is but a "bagatelle."

The amount of a country's accumulations, and the rate of their increase, afford some measure of its capacity to endure the burdens of taxation, and, we may add, other kinds of pecuniary strain. It is observed by Newmarch, one of Mr. Giffen's predecessors in this department of statistics, that the investment in railways, which produced such convulsions in 1847-48, would have been in 1863 almost unfelt and insignificant in comparison with the yearly savings which were being made at the later epoch.

indirect and inferential. He who trusts the rising of the mercury when the north-east wind is blowing may get a wetting. So also with the metaphorical weather-glass. "The property test is useful as far as it goes, but it is not the only test," says Mr. Giffen. Elsewhere, in his address to the British Association, he has acted the part of a Fitzroy in considering together and interpreting in their connection the various tests and signs which economic meteorology affords. His object here is rather to perfect one particular instrument.

This barometrical use of capital may involve the ne. cessity of correcting the estimates so as to take account of changes in the value of money. It may happen, it has happened, that in the last decade, as compared with the preceding period, the growth of capital estimated in money shows a falling off, while the increase of money's worth, of things, has not declined proportionately. To complete our measurement we must correct the measuring-rod. This is no easy or straightforward task. In the case of a real barometer we can mark the inches by reference to the standard yard measure, which is kept in the Tower. But a similarly perfect measure of value is, in the phrase of an eminent living economist, "unthinkable." The present generation finds itself, with respect to the variations in the value of money, in the sort of difficulty which must have occurred to the primæval man when first he may have noticed that a perfect measure of time was not afforded by the length of day and night, and before there had been constructed a more scientific chronometer. Even Mr. Giffen has to content himself with such rough and rather arbitrary corrections as the present state of monetary science affords.

As the object sought, the measure of accumulation, is somewhat hazy and difficult to envisage, so the method by which it is approached is indirect and slippery The business man must not suppose that the estimates of a nation's capital can be totted up with the precision of a commercial account. The physicist is better prepared to appreciate the character of the computation, conversant as he is with observations which individually are liable to a certain error, while, put together, they afford certainty. But even physical observations, liable to a considerable yet calculable extent of error, hardly parallel the fallibility of these economic or, if we might coin a required word, metastatistical computations. In estimating that fallibility, we may usefully employ the analogy suggested by the theory of errors; but we must bear in mind the criticism to which this theory, even in its application to physics, was subjected by a witty mathematician: "After having calculated the probable error, it is necessary to calculate the probability that your calculation is erroneous."

The characteristic to which we draw attention is fully recognized by Mr. Giffen. Again and again he dwells on the rough and approximative character of his method, "the wide margin of error," and the "limit of information available." His cautions against reasoning too finely might have seemed superflous in their iteration, but that One use to which Mr. Giffen gives prominence may be he doubtless anticipated the irrelevant criticism which thus described. The comparative growth of capital at each departmental statistician might direct against details different epochs serves as a sort of barometer of national-like the specialist in sculpture who, according to Horace, prosperity. Of course those who use a barometer must represents with peculiar accuracy the hair or nails, but remember that its indications of fair weather are but nescit componere totum. VOL. XLI.-No. 1068.

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