quantity of muscovado sugar used in the year for the refining of exported sugar: then suppose that the whole drawback is upon muscovado reexported, (and this will be perceived, by any person who follows the calculation, to be much in favour of the West Indian's argument), and divide that drawback, accordingly, by the drawback allowed in the year; the quotient being added to the sum formerly obtained, gives the whole quantity in cwts. of muscovado sugar, which has paid duties, and is not consumed in the country if this is subtracted from the quantity on which duty has been paid, the remainder is the consumption of the year. By calculating on this principle, it will be found, that the consumption of 1807 was 2,159,990 cwts., or about 180,000 hogsheads for Great Britain, that the consumption of 1806 was about 183,000, and of 1805 about 140,000 hogsheads,-and, of consequence, that the average yearly consumption for these years was above 167,000 hogsheads, being nearly 32,000 hogsheads less than the criterion of exports and imports gives. According to the same proportion, the consumption of Ireland should be reduced to about 21,000 hogsheads; and this would give the whole consumption of the empire at 188,000. This is the nearest approximation which the data afforded by the published documents enable us to make. We have already fairly pointed out the best modes of checking our result; and as the discovery of truth is our only object, we shall heartily rejoice to find, that our labours lead even to disclosures which may convict our calculations of error.

Although, therefore, we may differ from the West Indians respecting the amount of the actual home consumption, we are not at all disposed to deny that it has greatly increased. We must now, however, proceed to observe, that its increase, in whatever degree, furnishes no proof that the natural and effectual demand for sugar has augmented, or the general glut of the market been relieved. If the price of the article has been con-stantly falling, while the consumption was increasing,-if, both in the home market and abroad, sugars were sold in much greater quantities than before, but at prices so reduced as not to replace the sums expended in raising and carrying them,-surely the increase of consumption, instead of proving that the market of the world requires so much more sugar than it did before, only shows that the glut has reduced the price, and that the reduction of the price has created a demand which otherwise would not have existed. The planters prove nothing, if they do not show, that there has been such an increase of demand as to take off more sugars than before at a fair price: The question is, not how much sugar may be used in the world, but, how much can be bought. And to give sugar for less than it costs, is not selling,

selling, but throwing it away. Let us only consider the facts as stated by the West Indians themselves. Jamaica sugar costs 20s. 10d. per cwt in the island; the cost in the other settlements is 19s. 6d.; so that the average expense of raising sugar is about 20s. per cwt. The charges of transport during war are from 15s. to 16s.; therefore, it costs between 35s. and 36s. to bring a hundred weight of sugar into the European market; and this sum must be replaced before the expenses are returned. In 1807, the total import of sugar into the United Kingdom was 316,000 hogsheads, of which there were exported to the Continent about 94,000. But at what prices were the 222,000 hogsheads sold which were not exported? The average price for the year was only 34s., being 1s. 6d. or 2s. less than the article cost; and, that a still greater loss was experienced on the quantity exported, ap pears from the statement which we gave in our former Article. To call a consumption, forced, we had almost said, by such sacrifices on the part of the grower, an effectual demand-or any thing but the effects of a glut-is an abuse of terms. It is manifest, that if any means could be devised of raising these prices, the consumption now under consideration would cease ;-and we are thus led to inquire, what is the quantity really demanded by the home market? This can only be ascertained by a comparison of former years, when the prices were neither extraordinarily high nor very low.

The average price of sugar in the London market during four years, ending 1797, was 57s. exclusive of duties; and it is stated, that this price only yields the planter from 6 to 7 per cent. clear upon his capital. The average annual import into the United Kingdom, during the same period, was, 188,500 hogsheads; the export 56,500; leaving a balance of 132,000 hogsheads for home consumption. In the five years ending 1790, the price was considerably lower. Yet Bryan Edwards estimates the returns of a West India estate, during that period, at 7 per cent. upon the capital. We may therefore conclude, that the consumption was not greatly affected by the lowness of price: it was 150,000 hogsheads annually. In the five years ending 1800, it was 165,000 hogsheads, although the price was 65s. 9d. But the sugar used in the distilleries during two of those years, greatly relieved the home market. If allowance is made for this circumstance, it will appear, that the actual consumption of sugar did not increase materially in the United Kingdom from 1790 to 1800; or that, whatever tendency there might have been towards an augmented use of the article, the rise of price checked it. Again, in five years ending 1775, the average consumption was 146,000 hogsheads, and the prices such as to allow the planter

full 7 per cent. This gives, when compared with the five years ending 1790, a very trifling augmentation of quantity-only 4000 hogsheads; therefore we may expect the consumption to fall nearly to its former level, when the prices shall rise to their former rate. The average import of the three years ending 1807, was 307,000. Of this it is probable that a good deal more could be consumed, were the price again raised to 57s., than was consumed at that price eleven years ago. If we allow 18,000 hogsheads for this increase, we have a home consumption of 150,000; and we are the rather disposed to think this estimate not greatly wide of the truth, because it supposes that as much sugar will be consumed at 84s., duties included, as was twenty years ago consumed when the gross price was only 45s. It supposes the middle classes of the community to spend above three millions and a half more than they formerly did upon the same quantity of sugar, besides the rise of the retailer and refiner's profits;a very ample allowance both for the progress of wealth and the depreciation of money.

Let us next consider what the export of the remainder is likely to be. The average export during four years ending 1797, was annually 56,500 hogsheads. In this period we had possession of several foreign colonies. Tobago was taken in April 1793; Martinico in March 1794; St Lucia in April of the same year. These islands, producing nearly 28,000 hogsheads, we retained during the whole of this period. Guadaloupe was captured in April, and retaken in December 1794; and from St Domingo we imported, in 1798, above 2000 hogsheads. We had possession of much greater part of it during the period in question: so that, allowing for the supply of Guadaloupe in 1794, and making no calculation on account of Trinidad, which we consider as a colony permanently British, the average yearly import from the conquered colonies, in that period, must be estimated at 35,000 hogsheads. Deducting this from the total export from Great Britain to the Continent, we have 21,500 hogsheads as the average annual quantity of British colony sugars required by the demand of the Continent during four years ending 1797. Since that period, the enemy's produce has been much more easily and systematically conveyed to Europe, by the intervention of neutrals, than it was in the earlier stages of the war. The quantity of that produce has also increased most rapidly, as we had occasion to show in our former Number. Nothing but the extreme depression of prices at which British produce was sold,

could

*It was captured February 1797; but its produce was then very trifling.

The instruction of 1798 is well known.

could have forced any considerable amount of it into the Continental market; and we may be satisfied, that sufficient allowance is made for the increased demand of that market, if we state its augmentation as proportional to the increase of our own home consumption. This would give the natural and permanent demand of the foreign market, at fair, average prices, as somewhat less than 25,000 hogsheads; and when we recollect, that during four years ending 1790, it averaged only 12,400,-that the blank occasioned by the destruction of St Domingo has been much more than filled up by the culture of the Spanish settlements, as well as of those which our capital has manured,-and that the restrictions imposed by the war are likely to alter the habits of the people on the Continent,-while the loss of capital, occasioned by the same cause, will certainly diminish their means of enjoyment, we must be convinced, that an estimate which allows their consumption of a mere luxury to double in twenty years, cannot err by undervaluing the consumption.

We should apprehend, then, that the whole quantity of sugar required, both by our home consumption and our exportation, permanently, naturally, and independently both of the war and the present extremely low prices, cannot be much more than 175,000 hogsheads; call it even 180,000. This deducted from 307,000, the average yearly import of three years ending 1807, leaves 127,000 hogsheads to be accounted for. From this we have to subtract the produce of the conquered colonies, which will probably be restored at a peace. In 1897, it amounted to about 41,000 hogsheads, including the import into Ireland, as calculated upon the proportion of the total Irish import of sugar to the total British import; so that no less than 86,000 hogsheads remain, the produce of our own settlements, over and above the quantity for which the market, both home and foreign, affords any effectual demand. This quantity, at present, is forced into consumption by prices so low as not to repay the expenses of its production and carriage. Were the prices raised so as to afford him a fair profit upon his stock, this quantity would remain a drug on his hands. Of course, while it remains in existence, and while the sugar trade continues unmonopolized, the prices never can rise; and the seller, if such he can be called, must be ruined.

We are now to consider the measures proposed for the relief of the planters. Of these, some have for their object the discoveryof new vents for the surplus which we have been describing; others propose the diminution of the planters' expenses; and others pretend to embrace both these objects together. To the first class, belong the projects for opening the distillery to sugars, and for encouraging its consumption in agriculture: to the se

Cc 3

cond,

cond, belong the propositions for relaxing the colonial monopoly with respect to the sugar refinery, and for altering the duties on sugar consumed in the United kingdom: to the last class, belong the plans for relaxing the colonial monopoly with respect to trade; and the prospect-we lament to think it can scarcely be called a plan-of peace.

I. The substitution of sugar for grain, in the distillation of spirits, may be effected, either by introducing sugar into the distilleries of this country, or by enabling the planters to bring their rum into the home market at a lower price than that for which corn spirits can now be sold. With respect to the former plan, it is admitted, that, even under the high price of barley, and with the low price of sugar, during the last year, the distillation from grain could only be prevented by a prohibition ;-in other words, it was, notwithstanding the prices, more advantageous to every party concerned, that spirits should be made of grain than of sugar. Into the detail of this matter we need not now enter; -the fact is clearly proved, by the legislative measure which was found to be necessary in order to exclude grain from the distillery. 'The King in Council was empowered, by proclamation, to prohibit the distillation of grain, until forty days after the commencement of the next session of Parliament; and the ground of this measure was stated to be, the fear of scarcity. It is quite manifest, however, that if scarcity was to be apprehended, either from a failure of crops or an interruption of our foreign supply, the rise of price would speedily indicate its approach, much more surely, and with infinitely greater precision, than the evidence of any witnesses whom a parliamentary committee, or the King's ministers during the recess, could examine. If the price of grain rose so little as not to prevent the distiller from using it, there was evidently a very slight degree of scarcity. The moment when the interest of the country required a stoppage of the corn distillery, and the moment when the distillers' own interest would have stopped it, must coincide very nearly. They would coincide entirely, but for the loss occasioned by a change in the machinery for the distilling process and it is a sufficient reason, against interfering to make the coincidence more instantaneous, that we thereby throw a certain loss upon a class not naturally liable to it. The assertions, that barley is dear,-that its price is higher now than it was a year ago, that therefore no harm is done by forcing it out. of the distilleries, are wholly vague and gratuitous. Who shall presume to say at what price barley is too dear, or is sufficiently dear? The price has advanced, no doubt ;-but, if the supply is contracted, ought it net to advance? We cannot tell how much of the advance is owing to a bad crop, and how much to a failure

of