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could only supply her colony by first buying from other countries, and could take but a small portion of its produce for her own use. Add to this, that her monopoly was in every respect much more rigorously enforced. A very different effect must therefore result from the transference of the Government to Brazil, from any thing that followed the establishment of American independence in 1783. The weight of the old system was much greater, and its removal must afford more relief. It is giving the new government but very little credit for wisdom, to presume that they will throw open the commerce of the country to all foreign Itates. Brazil will now be supplied with foreign goods as cheap as North America, it will have as wide a market for its own produce. More of the former will be consumed, and more of the latter rais
ed. The progress of wealth will be attended with proportionate is improvement to its customers, at the head of whom, England müft neceffarily stand, whether she obtains any exclusive favour
from the new government, or trusts wholly to her natural superi9 ority in manufactures and trade. by 2. But, from the view to which we are thus led by the theory
of the subject, there are certain material deductions to be made in practice. The colony of Brazil has, no doubt, been considera
ably stunted by the monopoly of the mother country; but a pretty de extenfive contraband trade is known to have been established in
both the Spanish and Portugueze settlements, almost with the re
gularity of a legitimate commerce. Those colonies were supplied To to a considerable amount with foreign commodities, both from
Europe direct, and through the medium of the West Indian
islands, which formed convenient entrepôts of smuggling; and, to y by the systematic connivance of the public funcionaries, even in
times of war, carried on extensive dealings with the Southern Coniesas tinent. It may give some notion of the regularity with which from these proceedings were conducted, if we mention a fact well
known in the manufacturing towns of this country. The warelargest houses of persons largely engaged in the trade to the Spanish Main
are generally filled with British manufactures, made up, not in
bales, but in small parcels, frequently with the Spanish mark e stepen imitated upon the cover. These are destined to be carried conve
niently under the capôts, or in the wide Neeves, or among the petLie to ticoats, or in various parts of the garments of the Spaniards, who content flock to the water-side to purchase the goods which our trading of andere vefsels, hovering on the forbidden coast, contrive, every now and
then, to land, in spite of the guarda-costas. If this circumstance, and the ample returns in silver known to be made by the traffic in question, proves clearly, that the monopoly cramps to a great degree the supply of those people, it at least shows as plainly, that VOL. XII. NO. 23.
some sort of remedy is provided for the evil, and a considerable relief administered, notwithstanding the vigilance of the goverzment. Partly in the same manner, and partly through the Spanish provinces, thus supplied, the Brazilians have been accustomed to receive considerable stores of contraband goods. The extent of this fupply happens to be known to us by some remarkable faci. It frequentl- has come out in evidence before our prize courts, that English manufactures have been known occasionally to sell cheapa in Buenos Ayres, and other Spanish towns in America, than in London. It is too well known to every man who has lived to witnefs the disgraceful expedition which lately failed in those parts, that a prodigious glut was produced in the market by a moderate increase of the shipments sent thither. We have been ir formed, upon very good authority, that articles of British manufacture have been sold in Lisbon and Oporto, after coming from Rio Janeiro, cheaper than they could be procured from England direet; and Sir George Staunton remarked, many years ago, that the shops in Brazil were crowded quite full of Britith goods, which fold at moderate prices. We are far from saying, that these particulars prove that Brazil was always supplied in abusCance with foreign commodities; still less do we say, that the glut just alluded to, was the ordinary state of the market. But we da contend, that the evidence afforded by such facts, proves distincta ly the absurdity of supposing that the market was always exceedingly understocked; because such a glut as we have been defcribing, never could occur at all in a market so circumstanced. Now, what Brazil got before, was supplied by us, either regularly through Portugal, or by this contraband. It is Oly, therefore, the difference between the precarious and the more, regular and constant supply of our goods, that can in the present question be fet down to the account of the emigration.
3. A deduction of nearly equal importance must now be made, on account of the loss which we must sustain from the occupation of Portugal by France. Instead of supplying both mother country and colony, as we used to do, with almost the whole of the manufactured articles consumed by the natives, we shall now only supply the colony; so that a considerable and immediate increase of consumption must take place in the Brazils from the revolution under discussion, in order only to indemnify us for the loss of the Portugueze market, with which that revolution has been attended. The course of our trade with Portugal used to be this—We did not want a great deal of Brazil produce, because our own colonies furnished nearly the same articles; but we sent our hardware and woollens to Portugal, for both the European and American market. Portugal paid us for the whole ;
. . partly
sartly in Brazil produce, but chiefly in wines, salt, &c. her own European produce. She then received payment from her colony, in the produce which she wanted for her own consumption ; so that the English manufacturer was enabled to sell his goods both to Portugal and to Brazil, because the Portugueze consumed the produce of their own colonies. But now this trade is at an end. The sugar and cotton of Brazil can no longer go to Lisbon, to pay the owner of vineyards for sending out our manufactures ; nor can the wines of Portugal come here to pay us for senda ing those manufactures thither. Then how are we to be repaid, it may be asked, for those manufactures which, notwithstanding the emigration, we still send out, viz. to Brazil direct? This forms a separate head of account, and leads to a new limitation of the wide prospect of mercantile gains, hitherto so fondly entertained.
4. The only conceivable mode of paying for our goods in the new order of things, is by shipments of Brazil produce. This consists chiefly in sugar and cotton, with some dyeing woods and stuffs, and gold. The gold, and some of the cotton, will still be worth taking in return; but not the sugar. The glut of that article, in every corner of the world, is too well known, and too severely felt, to make it necessary that we should dwell upon it. We had an opportunity lately of explaining the subject pretty fully; and the whole statement, then made, is to the point in the present inquiry. The Brazil sugars cannot be taken in payment of our goods ; they are a mere drug; they can in no degree whatever aid us in trading with the new monarchy. In other words, the great staple of the country is quite useless in trade. Nor is it to any considerable amount that cotton can serve our purpose. We already get nineteen parts in twenty of the cotton used in our manufactures, from North America and our own colonies ; only a trifling portion of it comes from Brazils Yet, without any considerable importation from thence, the supply has always been sufficient for the demand ; and, of late, a fall of price has indicated, that there were symptoms of a glut in this article, as well as in other West Indian produce. If the whole cotton of Brazil is at once thrown into our market, it will be as useless as sugar. We get nearly enough already. In other words, the second staple of Brazil is next to useless for the purs poses of our commerce with that country'; and to talk of such trifling objects as the woods, dyes, &c. would be mere waste of time, after disposing of those things which form ninety-niner parts in a hundred of the whole produce of the colony.' It is inanifest, therefore, that nothing short of a complete change in the cultivation of Brazil, or an uninterrupted communication be
tween that province and Portugal, can enable us to trade to as: considerable amount with its inhabitants. It is equally evides, that, even if the communication were restored, we should recei the produce of Portugal round about by Brazil, instead of getting it direct from the place of growth, as formerly. So that this vi be the whole difference produced by the revolution, upon the trada which we have hitherto carried on with Portugal and her conies, in so far as the returns of that traffic are concerned ; a. taking the most favourable supposition that can be made, E: shall receive the bulk of our returns circuitously, which used to come directly; and we shall get that lesser portion directly. which used to come round about.
If, on the other hand, peace is restored, and the separatio of Brazil from Portugal finally sealed, we are led to anotha, and somewhat more favourable view of our case.
5. In this situation of things, the trade between Brazil and Pe. tugal being reestablished, but left to its natural coarse, only to much Brazil produce will go thither as Portugal may require, za! the overplus of the produce of Portugal, beyond what Brazil may require, will come to England direct, both in payment for goocs sent from hence to Portugal, and in payment of articles fent : Brazil ; but which, not obtaining a price in Brazil produce, en be paid for by the export of that produce to Portugal. The former state of things will therefore be wholly restored, with this only difference, that we shall get the Brazil produce direct from thence, and send our goods direct thither. The other branches of the trade in which England, Portugal and Brazil have been cornected together, will subäst entirely upon the ancient footing, But if peace shall continue, and if tolerably wise and liberal views regulate the domestic policy of the new government, the increase of the culture in Brazil, and the proportional increase of demand for British goods, must be productive of the most beneficial con sequences to our manufacturing and trading interests. The produce most adapted to the state of our markets, will, of course, be raised, and we shall have a wide and increasing field of commercial intercourse opened to us; which being placed far beyond the reach of European politics, may be more surely relied upon as our own, than any of the nearer channels of employment. This slowly increasing and remote advantage, he must be a blind or a factious politician not to perceive.
In this sense, and with these limitations, we may rationally view, in the consequencees of the Portugueze emigration, a balance to the succefles of our inveterate enemy in Europe, mighty and uninterrupted as those have been. It is not for the purpose of depreciating them, or of darkening this prospect, that we have en
tered into the preceding detail ; but with the view of stripping off the false colours which have, for interested ends, been studiously cast upon the subject ; and of warning the country against once more falling a prey to the disease of hope, which, in this climate, seems at once to be epidemical and incurable ; although we are surrounded on all hands with the powerful antidote of perennial disappointment. It is in order to lend our feeble aid towards furnishing a preventive, in the present crisis, to a malady so extensively hurtful, that we have gone through the particulars of the preceding review; and proved—not that Brazil is nothing—nor yet that it will not prove highly and permanently beneficial to England,-but that the immediate effects of the emigration must be, upon the whole, rather hurtful than advantageous; that many years must elapse before they can be very important; that they shall most assuredly be bitterly deceived, who expect to find in this new kingdom any compensation for the losses which we are daily suffering in every other quarter of the globe ; and that the confummation of public folly will be that of this nation, if it shall affume a more haughty and warlike posture towards other powers, from a reliance on the benefits of its new American connexion.