Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer |
Contents
IMPLEMENTATION A Framework for Implementation | 25 |
7 | 29 |
Summary | 42 |
Copyright | |
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accurate amalgamated forecast Armstrong asked assess average backcasts behavior bias bootstrapping model Box-Jenkins calibration causal methods causal variables Chapter Clever Hans coefficient complex concurrent validity considered costs decision Delphi dependent segmentation dependent variable described developed discussion Ec Eco eclectic research econometric methods econometric model econometricians Economic empirical estimating current status evaluation examined example Exhibit experiment exponential smoothing feedback forecast horizon forecasting change forecasting methods forecasting model historical data hypotheses important improved inputs interview judges judgmental forecasting judgmental methods large changes linear long-range forecasting Management MAPE Markov chains measurement error moving average naive objective data objective methods obtained predictions priori analysis problem Psychology reasonable regression analysis relationships Review role playing sample selection short-range forecasting simple simulation situation statistically significant stepwise regression strategy subjective summary survey techniques tion Tom Swift trend uncertainty Wizard of Id